That’s the Fed’s view of the employment market. Economists at the central bank expect the unemployment rate will fall to 6 percent by the end of this year. That’s getting awfully close to the Fed’s goal for an unemployment rate in the mid -5 percent range — solid improvement, to be sure, but neither solid nor fast enough to justify a near-term increase in interest rates. Most analysts think the difficult balance between supporting the recovery and avoiding an inflationary bubble continues to tilt toward the recovery.